Monday, June 4, 2007

SurveyUSA Election Poll

In CA GOP Gold Rush, Fred Thompson leaps into 2nd-Place Tie with McCain, 7 Points Behind Giuliani: Eight months to the newly accelerated and suddenly critical California Republican Primary, the contest destabilizes and further tightens, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely GOP Primary voters, conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, and KGTV-TV San Diego. Rudolph Giuliani leads today, but by 7 points, down from a 13-point lead 4 weeks ago, on 5/7/07, and down from a 19-point lead 8 weeks ago, on 4/2/07. Half-In-Half-Out Fred Thompson has doubled his support in the past month, from 11% on 5/7/07 to 21% today. That puts Thompson into a 2nd-place tie with John McCain, whose support is flat month on month, 21% then, 21% now. Mitt Romney runs 4th today, at 11%, largely unchanged from 12% last month. Undeclared candidate Newt Gingrich is 5th, at 8%. Among Conservatives, Thompson is up 12 points month-on month, and has gone from 4th place to 1st. There is volatility among Hispanics, who make up 17% of likely Republican Primary voters in SurveyUSA's turnout model: Giuliani has lost 23 points month-on-month, down from 46% to today 23%. Thompson's support among Hispanics is up 5 fold, from 5% to 24%. Margin of Sampling Error is high for this small subgroup, but the movement is striking nonetheless. SurveyUSA tracking polls from 4/2/07 and 3/6/07 did not explicitly name Fred Thompson, so those results are not shown on the tracking graphs released today.

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